Why Ground Beef Demand, Not Imports, Really Drives Beef Prices
High beef prices are getting plenty of attention these days from consumers, politicians, and the media. Feedlot Magazine recently ran a piece, “The Source of High Cattle and Beef Prices,” explaining that record cattle prices come from years of drought and herd liquidation. That is true as far as it goes, but it leaves out one major reality about the U.S. beef market.
Ground beef drives everything.
The Real Shortage Isn’t in Burgers, It’s in Fat
The U.S. beef cow herd is at its smallest since the early 1960s, and the calf crop hasn’t been this low since World War II. When ranchers liquidate herds, there is a temporary bump in beef production because cull cows go to slaughter, but eventually the pipeline dries up. That is the part the Feedlot article got right.
Where it misses the mark is on what the U.S. is actually short on.
We are not short on ribeyes or tenderloins. We are short on lean trimmings used to make ground beef. The U.S. produces plenty of fatty beef from feedlot-finished steers, usually around 50 CL trim, but it does not produce enough lean beef to balance it out. As a result, the U.S. imports lean, frozen, boneless beef, usually 85–90% lean, from countries like Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, and Argentina.
These imports are not steaks. They are building blocks for burgers.
Imports Aren’t Competition, They’re a Blending Ingredient
Politicians often say that we import beef while American ranchers are hurting, but that is not how the system works. Those lean imports do not compete with U.S. ranchers, they complement them.
What actually hurts ranchers is drought. When a long, roving drought like the one that swept through much of the country in 2020 hits, pastures dry up, feed prices skyrocket, and ranchers are forced to sell breeding cows just to survive. That liquidation pushes short-term beef supplies higher, but it takes years for herds and rangeland to recover.
Imports fill the gap that drought leaves behind. When our cow herd shrinks, there simply is not enough domestic lean beef to meet the steady demand for ground beef. Imports step in to keep processors running and burgers affordable for consumers. They are not competition, they are a temporary patch in a system that depends on natural cycles and weather we cannot control.
U.S. packers blend fatty domestic trim with imported lean trim to create the perfect 80/20 burger mix. Without imports, the beef industry would be out of balance, with too much fat trim and not enough lean. If imports stopped tomorrow, the burger supply chain would seize up, not because there would be no beef, but because the ratios would not balance.
Ground Beef Demand Is the Engine
Roughly half of all beef eaten in America is ground beef. When consumers “trade down” from steaks during inflation, they do not stop eating beef. They buy more burgers. That keeps overall beef demand high and supports carcass values at the same time.
The Feedlot story focuses on herd cycles and drought, which absolutely matter, but the retail price pressure consumers feel is really tied to burger demand. Lean trimmings are the most essential ingredient in the U.S. beef system, and their price movements affect everything else.
Retired dairy cattle contribute significantly to the domestic ground beef market.
The Argentina Illusion
Lately, Argentina has been mentioned as a source of “foreign beef competition.” In reality, Argentina supplies about 2% of total U.S. beef imports, mostly lean, frozen trimmings. It is a small share of the total. The major lean suppliers are Australia and Brazil, and even their beef goes primarily to grinders, not to the steak case.
From a Farmer’s Perspective
As someone who raises pastured lamb, pork, and chicken in Sussex County, New Jersey, I look at this system with mixed feelings. I do not even eat ground beef, but I know it is the anchor that keeps the entire U.S. beef economy spinning. Without burger demand, packers could not process the rest of the carcass efficiently. It is the hidden mechanism behind every “record beef price” headline.
The real story is not about imports stealing market share. It is about how America’s appetite for burgers quietly shapes the price of every steak, roast, and ribeye.
Bottom line:
When you read about high beef prices, remember that the global trade in lean beef trimmings, not the number of ribeyes in the case, tells you where the market is headed.
(And for what it is worth, I will stick with lamb chops.)